Patronato v Atlanta

Patronato meet Atlanta in the Primera Nacional regular season - 21. The model makes Atlanta the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 26% PAT, 36% draw, 38% ATL.

Atlanta rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1589 to 1444. Recent form leans Atlanta, 61% against 45%. Attacking output favors Atlanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 14%. Draw no bet leans Atlanta at 60%; double chance reads Patronato or draw 62%, Atlanta or draw 74%.

Patronato arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Gimnasia Y Tiro, L 0-1 v San Martin Tucuman, D 1-1 v Midland, D 0-0 v Atletico DE Rafaela.

Atlanta are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Colegiales, L 1-2 @ Quilmes, L 0-2 @ Almagro, W 2-1 @ Midland.

Patronato hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atlanta 0-0 Patronato.

The market prices PAT at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Atlanta: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.