Acassuso v San Telmo

Acassuso meet San Telmo in the Primera Nacional regular season - 21 at La Quema Stadium, Boulogne Sur Mer. The model makes San Telmo the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 25% ACA, 37% draw, 38% SAN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans San Telmo, 42% against 26%. Attacking output favors San Telmo on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 15%, over 2.5 goals around 10%. Draw no bet leans San Telmo at 60%; double chance reads Acassuso or draw 62%, San Telmo or draw 75%.

Acassuso arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Racing Cordoba, D 1-1 @ Chaco For Ever, L 0-2 v San Miguel, L 1-2 @ Ferro Carril Oeste.

San Telmo are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Chaco For Ever, L 1-2 @ Ferro Carril Oeste, W 2-0 v Racing Cordoba, D 0-0 @ Central Norte.

Acassuso hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Telmo 2-3 Acassuso.

The market prices ACA at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on San Telmo: a 11.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.