Where the market is wrong on Gneist v Brann II
Gneist meet Brann II in the 3. Division - Girone 3 regular season - 13. The model makes Brann II the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 25% GNE, 25% draw, 49% BRA.
Brann II rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1400. Recent form leans Brann II, 55% against 23%. Attacking output favors Brann II on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 80%, over 2.5 goals around 92%. Draw no bet leans Brann II at 66%; double chance reads Gneist or draw 51%, Brann II or draw 75%.
Gneist arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 7 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Brann II, L 2-6 @ Djerv, L 0-2 v Askøy, W 1-0 @ Varegg.
Brann II are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 17 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Gneist, W 3-2 v Fana, L 2-5 @ Os, D 2-2 @ Austevoll.
Brann II hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gneist 0-3 Brann II.
The market prices GNE at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
