Where the market is wrong on Union Omaha v One Knoxville
Union Omaha meet One Knoxville in the USL League One group stage at Werner Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 60%. Attacking output favors Union Omaha on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Union Omaha arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v One Knoxville, W 3-1 v Spokane Velocity, W 2-1 @ Corpus Christi, W 2-0 v Charlotte Independence.
One Knoxville are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Union Omaha, W 3-2 @ Fort Wayne, D 0-0 v Naples, W 2-1 @ Alta.
The market prices UNI at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on One Knoxville: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output