Where the market is wrong on Dundalk v Bohemians
Dundalk meet Bohemians in the Premier Division regular season - 33 at Oriel Park, Dundalk.
Bohemians rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1477. Recent form leans Bohemians, 68% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bohemians on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Dundalk arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Bohemians, L 2-3 v Shelbourne, L 0-4 v St Patrick's Athl., D 1-1 @ Waterford.
Bohemians are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Dundalk, D 0-0 v Bohemians 1905, W 2-1 v Drogheda United, W 3-2 @ Galway United.
Bohemians hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
The market prices DUN at 20% implied. Our number sits apart on Dundalk: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
