Where the market is wrong on RB Bragantino v Gremio
RB Bragantino meet Gremio in the Serie A regular season - 24 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista.
The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans RB Bragantino, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors RB Bragantino on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans RB Bragantino at 60%; double chance reads RB Bragantino or draw 72%, Gremio or draw 59%.
RB Bragantino arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Gremio, D 2-2 @ Atletico-MG, D 1-1 @ Atletico Paranaense, L 0-1 v Atletico-MG.
Gremio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Internacional, L 0-1 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-3 @ Atletico-MG, W 2-1 v Sao Paulo.
RB Bragantino hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio.
The market prices RB at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Gremio: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
