Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC

Atlanta United FC meet Orlando City SC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 24 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.

The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Orlando City SC, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Orlando City SC on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.3 per match.

Atlanta United FC arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v Sporting Kansas City, W 2-1 @ Minnesota United FC, W 2-1 v New York Red Bulls.

Orlando City SC are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ Minnesota United FC, W 2-1 v Real Salt Lake, L 1-2 v Chicago Fire, D 1-1 v FC Cincinnati.

Orlando City SC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Orlando City SC 4-1 Atlanta United FC.

The market prices ATL at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Orlando City SC: a 12.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.