Toronto FC v Chicago Fire

Toronto FC meet Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer regular season - 23 at BMO Field, Toronto.

Chicago Fire rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1443. Recent form leans Chicago Fire, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Chicago Fire on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.

Toronto FC arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v New York City FC, W 2-1 @ Inter Miami, D 3-3 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v New England Revolution.

Chicago Fire are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Seattle Sounders, L 1-2 @ Monterrey, D 1-1 @ New York Red Bulls, W 2-1 @ Orlando City SC.

Chicago Fire hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chicago Fire 2-1 Toronto FC.

The market prices TOR at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Chicago Fire: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.