Where the market is wrong on Austin v Philadelphia Union
Austin meet Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer regular season - 21 at Q2 Stadium, Austin.
The baseline ratings are close, 1480 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 45%. Attacking output favors Philadelphia Union on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Philadelphia Union at 51%; double chance reads Austin or draw 63%, Philadelphia Union or draw 66%.
Austin arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Toluca, D 1-1 v Philadelphia Union, W 2-1 @ Seattle Sounders, L 1-2 v FC Dallas.
Philadelphia Union are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Austin, D 2-2 v Inter Miami, W 3-2 @ New York City FC, L 0-2 v Santos Laguna.
Philadelphia Union hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Austin 1-1 Philadelphia Union.
The market prices AUS at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Austin: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
