Ecuador v Germany

Ecuador meet Germany in the World Cup group stage - 3 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.

The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 73%. Attacking output favors Germany on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.1 per match.

Ecuador arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Mexico, W 2-1 v Germany, D 0-0 v Curaçao, L 0-1 @ Ivory Coast.

Germany are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Paraguay, L 1-2 @ Ecuador, W 2-1 v Ivory Coast, W 7-1 v Curaçao.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.