Qarabag v Şamaxı FK: the model read
Qarabag meet Şamaxı FK in the Cup quarter-finals at Azersun Arena, Baku. The model makes Qarabag the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 50% QAR, 28% draw, 22% ŞAM.
Qarabag rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1565 to 1431. Recent form leans Qarabag, 58% against 40%. Attacking output favors Qarabag on expected goals, 2.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Qarabag at 69%; double chance reads Qarabag or draw 78%, Şamaxı FK or draw 50%.
Qarabag arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v CSKA Sofia, W 3-0 @ Vestri, W 3-0 v Vestri, L 0-1 @ Ferencvarosi TC.
Şamaxı FK are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Qabala, W 3-2 v Turan, L 0-3 @ Neftchi Baku, L 0-3 v Sabah FA.
Qarabag hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Şamaxı FK 0-0 Qarabag.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
