ANBA Peru won the Copa Perú final 5-4 on penalties after a 2-2 draw, an outcome that contradicted the Lemeister model's pre-match read of a straightforward 1-0 home victory. The Lemeister model had given ANBA Peru a 46% chance of winning in normal time, but the actual path to the title required a shootout defined by a single successful spot-kick. The data shows ANBA Peru dominated the early phases of open play, but their control was undone by a catastrophic disciplinary collapse that left them with nine men and forced extra time.
R. Luque gave ANBA Peru the lead in the 9th minute, a goal that validated their status as favourites and established an early advantage. They doubled their lead immediately after the interval, with A. Vela scoring in the 47th minute to make it 2-0. At that stage, with a two-goal cushion and just over 40 minutes to play, the match appeared settled. However, the second half turned decisively on discipline. D. Angles received a yellow card in the 52nd minute for a challenge that was not specified in the data, and J. Angels was sent off in the 57th minute with a straight red. The situation worsened when D. Angles collected a second yellow in the 60th minute, resulting in a second red card for ANBA Peru, leaving them with nine players for the final 30 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time.
Estudiantil CNI capitalised on the numerical advantage. P. Labrin scored in the 90th minute, reducing the deficit to 2-1 and forcing the match into extra time. The dismissal of an unnamed Estudiantil CNI player in the 91st minute, shown a straight red, restored parity in numbers at ten versus ten for the extra period. The pattern of play during extra time was shaped by the reduced personnel on both sides, and neither team could add to the scoring in open play. The match proceeded to a penalty shootout that spanned the 121st to 124th minutes.
The shootout saw nine penalties taken across both sides. P. Zuniga scored the first for ANBA Peru in the 121st minute, but P. Labrin equalised for Estudiantil CNI in the same minute. J. Garcia, S. Ballesteros, R. Rios, and A. Acosta all converted their subsequent penalties, leaving the score tied after five kicks each. The sudden-death phase was ultimately decided by a miss from an unnamed Estudiantil CNI player, which gave ANBA Peru the 5-4 victory.
Without detailed match statistics or player ratings, the individual contributions are measured only by the goals and the disciplinary record. P. Labrin was the only Estudiantil CNI scorer in open play, and his penalty in the shootout kept his side alive. For ANBA Peru, R. Luque and A. Vela provided the goals that built the lead, but the red cards to J. Angels and D. Angles were defining. D. Angles's second dismissal, after a yellow for a separate incident, compounded the disadvantage and shifted the momentum. The fact that ANBA Peru held a two-goal lead for 40 minutes before the sending-offs suggests their early performance was superior, but the data makes clear that their indiscipline was the primary driver of the contest's outcome.
The result means ANBA Peru lift the Copa Perú trophy, earning promotion based on the competition's format. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 home victory, but the actual margin was far narrower. ANBA Peru required a penalty shootout against a determined Estudiantil CNI side who pushed the match well beyond the expected duration. The path to victory was shaped as much by ANBA Peru's indiscipline as by their goalscoring efficiency, a lesson in how quickly control can be surrendered through a lack of composure. For Estudiantil CNI, the defeat will be felt deeply given the manner of their fightback, but the data shows they were ultimately undone by one missed penalty in the shootout. The final scoreline of 5-4 on penalties reflects a contest where fine margins, rather than open play superiority, decided the champion.
