Atlètic Lleida v Ourense CF: the model read
Atlètic Lleida meet Ourense CF in the Copa Federacion semi-finals. The model makes Ourense CF the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 32% ATL, 33% draw, 35% OUR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 40%. Attacking output favors Ourense CF on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Ourense CF at 53%; double chance reads Atlètic Lleida or draw 65%, Ourense CF or draw 68%.
Atlètic Lleida arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Andratx, L 1-2 @ Barcelona B, W 2-0 v Ibiza Islas Pitiusas, L 1-3 @ Girona II.
Ourense CF are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Tenerife, D 0-0 @ CF Talavera, L 2-4 v Celta de Vigo II, D 2-2 @ Athletic Club II.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2025: Atlètic Lleida 3-3 Ourense CF.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
