Inter Club d'Escaldes and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes played out a 2-2 draw in the Super Cup final at Estadi Nacional, a result that the Lemeister model had judged as the least likely outcome, giving it only a 29 per cent probability. The match was defined by a flurry of four goals inside 53 minutes, with the statistical data showing a narrow contest that the model had projected as a 2-1 win for Inter Club d'Escaldes, who were given a 39 per cent chance of victory.
The opening goal arrived in the 15th minute, scored by Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. It was a normal goal, with no assist credited. Inter Club d'Escaldes responded in the 33rd minute when F. Chouaib found the net, also a normal goal and without an assist. The scoreline was level at half-time, but the game was to remain open. Inter Club d'Escaldes took the lead for the first time five minutes into the second half, scoring a normal goal in the 50th minute. The advantage lasted only three minutes, as Atlètic Club d'Escaldes equalised in the 53rd minute with another normal goal.
Discipline was a significant factor in the match, with a high count of yellow cards. Both teams received three yellow cards each, making a total of six bookings. Atlètic Club d'Escaldes were shown the first yellow card of the match in the 18th minute, and they received their second just before half-time in the 45th minute. Inter Club d'Escaldes collected their first yellow card in the 36th minute and added further bookings in the 62nd and 88th minutes. Atlètic Club d'Escaldes' third yellow card arrived in the 90th minute. There was also a yellow card in the 93rd minute for Inter Club d'Escaldes, during what was presumably stoppage time, meaning the total of seven yellow cards suggests a combative encounter.
No substitutions were made by either side, indicating that both teams relied on their starting line-ups for the entire 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The absence of any further statistical data means the analysis is limited to the goal and card timings, but the volume of yellow cards on both sides points to a tightly contested and physical match. The Lemeister model had rated Inter Club d'Escaldes as slight favourites, but the actual outcome of a draw, which was the least probable scenario in the pre-match forecast, reflects how fine the margins were between the two teams.
The result means that the Super Cup final finished level, and with no extra time or penalty shootout mentioned in the data, the match ended as a draw. For both Inter Club d'Escaldes and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, the trophy will have to be decided by the regulations of the competition, which in this instance appear to have allowed the game to conclude at 2-2 after normal time. The high number of yellow cards, particularly in the second half and stoppage time, suggests that the intensity did not diminish as the match progressed, but neither side could find a decisive goal after the fourth goal in the 53rd minute. The data confirms a balanced contest that the Lemeister model had seen as a close affair, though its projection of a narrow Inter Club d'Escaldes win did not come to pass.
