Bahlinger SC and SGV Freiberg shared a 2-2 draw at the Kaiserstuhlstadion, a result that the Lemeister model had leaned slightly towards the visitors, giving Freiberg a 44 per cent win probability against a 28 per cent chance for the home side and an equal 28 per cent for the draw. The match was decided by two early strikes from Bahlinger and two penalties from Freiberg's L. Peto, with a late equaliser from L. Tost securing a point for the hosts. The scoreline reflected a contest where both sides found the net but neither could seize control of the underlying statistical battle.
The scoring began inside three minutes when L. Kobele put Bahlinger SC ahead with a normal goal. That early strike gave the home side a platform, but they were unable to build on it as the first half progressed. Freiberg responded before the interval when L. Peto converted a penalty in the 38th minute to level the scores. Peto struck again from the spot in the 62nd minute to put Freiberg ahead, his second penalty of the afternoon giving the visitors a 2-1 lead. The game then entered a phase where Bahlinger pushed for an equaliser, eventually finding it deep into stoppage time when L. Tost scored a normal goal in the 90th minute.
Though the detailed match statistics and player ratings were not provided in the data, the goals alone tell a clear story. Freiberg's ability to win two penalties was significant, as it allowed them to overturn an early deficit and take the lead without needing to create from open play. Bahlinger, by contrast, scored both of their goals from open play, with Kobele striking early and Tost rescuing a point at the death. The absence of any cards or substitutions suggests a disciplined encounter with few interruptions, though the lack of statistical depth means the broader flow of the match can only be inferred from the timing of the goals.
The decisive individual contributions came from the three named players. L. Peto was the standout for SGV Freiberg, scoring both of their goals from the penalty spot, converting under pressure to give his side the lead. His composure from 12 yards was the primary reason Freiberg left with a point. For Bahlinger, L. Kobele's early goal set the tone, but it was L. Tost's late equaliser that proved most valuable, snatching a draw from a position where the home side were behind with time running out. The rest of the squad, including the goalkeepers and defenders, played supporting roles that the data does not elaborate upon, but the absence of additional players named indicates that no other individual stood out statistically.
The draw leaves both teams with a point each in Südwest - 24, a result that marginally favours the model's projected away win. Freiberg, having been the pre-match favourite with a 44 per cent win chance, would have hoped for more, but Bahlinger's resilience earned them a share of the spoils. The Lemeister model's projection of a 1-2 away victory was not realised, as the home side's late equaliser altered the expected outcome. For Bahlinger, the point at home will be viewed as a rewarding return, while Freiberg will reflect on the two penalties they won but also on their failure to hold the lead through to the final whistle. The result keeps the mid-table positions intact, with both sides continuing their campaigns in the Regionalliga - SudWest without significant movement in the standings.
