FC Ingolstadt 04 defeated Hoffenheim II 3-0 at the Dietmar-Hopp Stadion, a scoreline that data shows was decided by exceptional finishing rather than overall dominance. The visitors scored with three of their 12 total shots inside the first 32 minutes, while Hoffenheim II, despite generating 2.15 expected goals to Ingolstadt's 1.61, managed only four shots on target from 21 attempts. The Lemeister model had given Ingolstadt a 42% chance of victory, making them narrow favourites, and the result confirmed that projection with a clinical first-half performance.
Jonas Scholz opened the scoring in the ninth minute from an assist by Y. Deichmann, giving the visitors an early advantage. Marcel Costly doubled the lead in the 18th minute, finishing from a D. Kaygin pass. Costly struck again in the 32nd minute, this time assisted by F. Carlsen, completing his brace before half-time and effectively ending the contest. The three goals came from a team that produced nine shots on target, six of which required saves from the Hoffenheim II goalkeeper. The home side had no answer to Ingolstadt's efficiency in the final third.
The statistical profile of the match highlights a stark contrast in efficiency. Hoffenheim II dominated possession with 55%, completed 443 passes at 84% accuracy, and took 21 shots. However, only four of those efforts were on target, with eight blocked and eight off target. Their 11 shots from inside the penalty area and 10 from outside suggest a willingness to shoot from distance that yielded little reward. Ingolstadt, by contrast, managed 12 shots, nine of which were on target, a conversion rate that reflects the quality of their chances. The visitors also earned nine corners to Hoffenheim's seven, another indicator of sustained pressure.
The player ratings underline the key contributors. Marcel Costly earned the highest rating of the match at 8.6 for his two goals, while Jonas Scholz, who scored the opener, received 7.9. For the home side, Deniz Zeitler was the standout performer with a 7.6 rating, and Lukas Petersson impressed with 7.5. Ingolstadt's Kai Eisele and Yann Sturm each received 7.5 ratings, reflecting solid defensive and midfield contributions. The yellow cards were concentrated on Hoffenheim II, with Luis Engelns, Luka Duric and Florian Bähr all booked in the second half, while Simon Lorenz was the only Ingolstadt player cautioned.
Hoffenheim II's underlying numbers suggest a performance that should have yielded goals. Their 2.15 expected goals, 11 shots from inside the box, and 55% possession all indicate control of the contest, but the conversion rate of four shots on target from 21 attempts was poor. The goalkeeper made six saves, but the defence allowed nine shots on target from only 12 attempts, a ratio that reflects the quality of Ingolstadt's finishing. The home side also committed 10 fouls and received three yellow cards, perhaps a sign of frustration as the game slipped away.
The result keeps Ingolstadt firmly in the promotion conversation in 3. Liga with three matches remaining. The three points and clean sheet provide a significant boost to their goal difference, while the dominant first half demonstrates their ability to punish opponents who fail to take their chances. For Hoffenheim II, the defeat is a setback, but the underlying numbers suggest that if they can improve their finishing, results will turn. The contrast between the volume of their attacking play and the final scoreline was the defining feature of this match, and it will likely be a focus for their coaching staff as the season enters its decisive phase.
