Hoffenheim II overturned both the pre-match expectation and a 1-0 deficit to claim a 3-1 victory over SSV Ulm 1846 at the Donaustadion. The Lemeister model had installed Ulm as marginal favourites with a 41% win probability, but the visitors proved far more clinical in the final third, converting three of their six shots on target while generating a clear advantage in expected goals (2.25 to 1.03). The numbers told a story of territorial control translating into quality chances, even though the hosts had more total attempts.
Ulm had the brighter start and took a deserved lead in the 12th minute. Leon Dajaku opened the scoring with a normal goal, capitalising on a period of home pressure. The goal was not assisted and arrived without the need for a set piece, but it set the tone for an open first half. Dajaku’s influence was reflected in a match rating of 7.6, making him Ulm’s top performer on the day. The lead, however, did not last until half-time.
Hoffenheim II equalised in the 39th minute through Deniz Zeitler, who scored his first of the afternoon with an unassisted normal goal. The visitors had been steadily growing into the contest, holding 56% possession for the match and completing 78% of their 568 passes compared to Ulm’s 73% from 411. Their patience paid off, and the match entered the interval level at 1-1.
The second half was decided by Hoffenheim II’s superior efficiency. They created chances with greater quality, as their expected goals tally of 2.25 suggests, while Ulm’s 1.03 xG indicates they were kept to lower-probability opportunities. The breakthrough came in the 78th minute when Deniz Zeitler scored his second of the game, this time assisted by L. Duric. Zeitler was the standout performer on the pitch, earning a match rating of 8.7, the highest of any player. His two goals were the decisive contribution. Oskar Hencke added a third in the 88th minute with another normal goal, undoing any late Ulm hopes of a response.
Defensively, Hoffenheim II were organised but not flawless; they conceded five shots on target and their goalkeeper was called upon for four saves. The team collected three yellow cards, to Paul Hennrich (11th minute), Luis Engelns (58th minute), and Diren Dağdeviren (72nd minute), signalling occasional defensive strain. Ulm, by contrast, finished without a single booking. The home side managed 14 total shots, seven from inside the box, but only five tested the goalkeeper. Their passing accuracy of 73% and four corners did not translate into enough dangerous moments.
Among the other standout performers, Yannik Lührs of Hoffenheim II recorded a rating of 7.3, while Elias Löder of Ulm also earned 7.2. Lukas Petersson and Oskar Hencke both matched that score for the visitors. Deniz Zeitler’s 8.7 rating was a clear reflection of his match-winning contribution.
The result moves Hoffenheim II into a stronger position in the 3. Liga table, taking three points away from a side that the Lemeister model had favoured. For Ulm, this was a missed opportunity to consolidate at home, as their 41% win probability had suggested a close contest but the defensive lapses and lack of a cutting edge proved costly. With 27% of the model’s probability assigned to a draw, the match was always expected to be tight, but the visitors’ ability to finish their chances made the difference.
