Union Berlin claimed a 3-1 victory at the Mewa Arena, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had given the visitors just a 25 per cent chance of winning. The decisive factor was clinical finishing in front of goal, with Union converting three of their nine shots on target while FSV Mainz 05 managed only one from three. The Lemeister model had projected a home win with 49 per cent probability, but Union's superior efficiency in the final third turned the contest decisively in their favour.
A. Ilic opened the scoring for Union Berlin in the 38th minute, finishing after an assist from A. Kemlein. The goal gave the visitors a platform to build upon after a first half that was statistically even. Mainz equalised three minutes into the second half through S. Becker, who scored from P. Nebel's assist to level the contest at 1-1. The match remained finely poised until the closing stages, when Union Berlin struck twice in quick succession to secure the points. O. Burke put the visitors back ahead in the 88th minute, finishing a move started by A. Ilic. J. Juranovic then sealed the victory in the 90th minute, converting from T. Skarke's assist to make it 3-1.
The underlying data suggests Union Berlin were the more dangerous side throughout. They generated 2.68 expected goals to Mainz's 1.57, reflecting a greater number of high-quality chances. Union had 16 total shots to Mainz's 14 and put nine on target against three, forcing the home goalkeeper into six saves. In contrast, the Mainz goalkeeper made only two saves. The visitors also held a clear advantage in shots from inside the box, 12 to 10, and were not caught offside once compared to two offsides for Mainz. The home side had seven blocked shots against Union's one, indicating that Mainz's defending was largely reactive and desperate rather than structured.
Possession was slightly in favour of Mainz at 53 per cent, and they completed 462 passes with an 84 per cent accuracy rate to Union's 411 passes at 82 per cent. However, Union were more direct and efficient with their ball use, a contrast reflected in the final scoreline. The visitors also earned eight corner kicks to Mainz's seven, maintaining pressure throughout. The discipline of both sides was relatively good, with Anthony Caci and Jae-sung Lee receiving yellow cards for Mainz and Derrick Köhn booked for Union. The goals prevented metric was identical for both sides at 0.45, suggesting the goalkeepers performed similarly despite the disparity in shots faced.
Christopher Trimmel was the standout performer for Union Berlin, earning a match rating of 8.9, reflecting his influence on both sides of the ball. Sheraldo Becker was Mainz's highest-rated player at 8.3, a fitting recognition for his equalising goal. Aljoscha Kemlein, Oliver Burke and Josip Juranovic all received ratings of 7.3 for the visitors, while Nadiem Amiri was Mainz's second-best performer at 7.2. The ratings underscore Union's collective strength, with four players in the 7.3-plus range compared to only two for Mainz.
The result has significant implications for Union Berlin's league position with one match remaining. They took full advantage of the Lemeister model's projection of a home win to collect three valuable points, a result that strengthens their survival prospects. Mainz, meanwhile, will be left to reflect on a contest they controlled for long periods in terms of possession but ultimately lost to a more incisive away side. The final scoreline was harsh on the balance of play but entirely fair on the basis of the chances created and converted. Union's efficiency in the closing minutes will give them confidence heading into the final round.
