Como won 2-1 against AS Roma at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, a result that the Lemeister model had seen as finely balanced: it gave Como a 37 per cent win probability and projected a 2-1 scoreline exactly. The data shows the home side dominated the contest almost entirely, registering 66 per cent possession, 22 total shots to Roma’s three, and an expected goals figure of 1.86 against 0.86. Roma played with 10 men for much of the match after receiving a red card, which compounded their difficulty in mounting any sustained attack.
The goals were scored without any assists recorded in the data. Como opened the scoring in the first half, though the exact minute is not available. Roma equalised at some stage, keeping the match level before Como scored a second goal to reclaim the lead. The home side’s control of the game was reflected in their shot volume: 15 of their attempts came from inside the penalty area, and they forced five saves from the Roma goalkeeper, whose goals-prevented figure of minus 0.34 was identical to that of the Como goalkeeper. Roma managed only one shot on target, a clear reflection of their lack of incision.
Possession statistics underline the one-sided nature of the contest. Como completed 549 passes with 87 per cent accuracy, while Roma managed 276 passes at 73 per cent accuracy. The home side also earned seven corner kicks to Roma’s one. Despite the disparity in attacking output, both teams committed a similar number of fouls: 16 for Como, 18 for Roma. The red card shown to a Roma player was a decisive factor, leaving the visitors numerically disadvantaged and unable to build pressure.
The player ratings highlight several strong individual performances for Como. Álex Valle and Martin Baturina each earned a 7.7 rating, the joint highest in the match. Both were influential in midfield or wide areas, though the data does not specify their precise roles. Ivan Smolčić posted a 7.5 rating, while Stephan El Shaarawy, the only Roma player among the nameable list, also received a 7.5, suggesting he was one of the few away players to offer resistance. Lucas Da Cunha and Anastasios Douvikas both finished on 7.2, rounding out a solid collective display for Como.
Defensively, Como were rarely troubled. Roma’s three total shots and one on target meant the home goalkeeper had no saves to make, a rare statistical line. The visitors’ only goal came despite their overall lack of threat, and the red card will be a concern for Roma’s discipline going forward. Como’s blocked shots count of eight indicates they were also well organised in preventing clear sights of goal.
In the context of the Serie A regular season, this result moves Como into a stronger position in the table, capitalising on home advantage against a Roma side that entered the match as slight underdogs according to the Lemeister model. For Roma, the defeat, compounded by a red card, represents a setback in their push for European places. The data suggests that the final scoreline was a fair reflection of the balance of play, with Como’s dominance in possession and chances translating into a deserved victory.
