Guimaraes B and Lusitano Evora 1911 played out a 1-1 draw in the Championship final at the Estadio Nacional, a result that required extra time and a penalty shootout to decide the champion. Possession and chance creation were almost perfectly balanced across 120 minutes, and the Lemeister model had forecast a narrow advantage for Guimaraes B, projecting a 1-0 home win with a 34 per cent probability. The model gave the draw a 33 per cent chance and a Lusitano Evora win also 33 per cent, reflecting a contest that was always expected to be tight. The final outcome, settled from the spot, was consistent with that reading, as neither side demonstrated clear superiority in open play.
The opening goal arrived in the 15th minute. J. Yuk scored a normal goal for Guimaraes B, giving his side the lead with a finish that did not require an assist. The goal was the only one of the first half, and Guimaraes B will have been encouraged by their ability to protect the lead until the interval, likely sitting deeper and looking to counter. Lusitano Evora responded positively after the break, and their persistence was rewarded in the 62nd minute when M. Lopes scored a normal goal to level the match. Neither side could find a winner in the remaining regulation time, so the final went to extra time.
Extra time yielded no further goals from open play, with both defences remaining compact and disciplined. The lack of cards in the data suggests a match played with controlled aggression, while the absence of detailed statistics such as possession, shots, and expected goals numbers limits any analysis of territorial control. Without these figures, the narrative on open-play dominance cannot be developed further, but the even scoreline across 120 minutes indicates that neither team created a decisive advantage. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 1-0 win for Guimaraes B proved inaccurate, as the home side could not maintain their early lead against a resilient Lusitano Evora.
The match ultimately went to a penalty shootout, which was dramatic and decisive. M. Lopes scored from the spot in the 121st minute to put Lusitano Evora ahead, demonstrating composure under pressure. Guimaraes B responded immediately, but J. Pinto scored for Lusitano Evora in the 122nd minute. Guimaraes B replied in the same minute, with G. Braga converting his penalty. The decisive moment came in the 123rd minute when A. Santos scored from the spot for Lusitano Evora, securing the shootout victory. All five penalties were converted successfully, reflecting high technical quality from the takers and possibly uncertainty from the goalkeepers.
The absence of player ratings means individual performances cannot be assessed, but J. Yuk's early goal and M. Lopes's equaliser and successful penalty mark them as key contributors. Without substitute data, the impact from the bench cannot be discussed, nor can any tactical adjustments be attributed to specific players. The discipline in the shootout was high, with no misses, and the clean sheet in terms of yellow or red cards suggests a contest that did not spill over into foul play.
The result confirms Lusitano Evora 1911 as champions of the Campeonato de Portugal Prio Promotion Round, having held their nerve from the spot after a 1-1 draw across 120 minutes. Guimaraes B will be left to reflect on what might have been after Yuk's early goal and a projected win from the Lemeister model that favoured them marginally. For Lusitano Evora, the penalty shootout victory represents a triumph of composure under pressure. The competition now concludes with Lusitano Evora securing promotion, while Guimaraes B must turn attention to next season's campaign, knowing they came within a shootout of the title.
