Sarmiento Junin secured a 1-0 away victory over San Martin S.J. at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez, a result that flips the pre-match expectation on its head. The Lemeister model had favoured the home side with a 35 per cent win probability against Sarmiento's 30 per cent, but the visitors proved more efficient with their chances. The decisive moment arrived in the 78th minute when G. Gonzalez scored, assisted by J. Contrera, to give Sarmiento the lead. The goal was the only shot on target that Sarmiento managed all evening, yet it was enough to take all three points.
The match statistics paint a picture of a contest where San Martin dominated the volume of attacking play but lacked the cutting edge to convert it into goals. The home side registered 15 total shots, nine from inside the box and six from outside, but only four found the target. Sarmiento’s goalkeeper, who is not named in the data, made four saves and prevented 0.76 goals according to the metrics, a performance that kept the visitors in the game. In contrast, San Martin’s goalkeeper faced just one shot on target, which resulted in the goal, and recorded no saves. The expected goals data underscores the efficiency gap: San Martin generated 0.71 xG from their 15 attempts, while Sarmiento’s 1.09 xG from just seven shots reflects the higher quality of their opportunities.
Possession was evenly matched, with Sarmiento holding 51 per cent to San Martin’s 49 per cent, but the visitors were more precise in their passing. Sarmiento completed 192 of 279 passes at a 69 per cent success rate, while San Martin managed only 160 accurate passes from 258 attempts, a completion rate of 62 per cent. The home side did dominate set pieces, earning eight corners to Sarmiento’s three, but they could not capitalise. Discipline was a notable factor: Sarmiento received six yellow cards, including early bookings for Juan Manuel Insaurralde, Iván Morales, Jonatan Gómez, Alex Vigo, Joel Godoy, and Joaquín Ardaiz. San Martin collected two yellows, for Esteban Burgos and Sebastián Jaurena.
Among the individual performances, Sarmiento goalkeeper Lucas Acosta earned the highest match rating of 8.2, reflecting his crucial role in preserving the clean sheet. Facundo Roncaglia also stood out for the visitors with a 7.3 rating. For San Martin, Rodrigo Caseres and Sebastián Jaurena both posted 7.2 ratings, while Joel Godoy of Sarmiento and Carlos Villalba also achieved 7.2. The home side’s attacking players were unable to impose themselves against a disciplined defensive effort from Sarmiento, who committed 15 fouls compared to San Martin’s 10 but managed to contain the threat.
Both teams made five substitutions each, but none of the changes altered the course of the match after Gonzalez’s goal. The result lifts Sarmiento to a valuable away win in the Liga Profesional Argentina’s 2nd Phase, while San Martin will rue their inability to turn territorial dominance into points. With the Lemeister model projecting a home win, this outcome represents a notable upset. Sarmiento’s efficiency and defensive resilience, led by Acosta’s goalkeeping and Roncaglia’s organising presence, proved decisive against a San Martin side that controlled play but could not finish.
