Chester v Buxton: the model read
Chester meet Buxton in the National League - North - Play-offs north promotion play-offs - qualifying round at Deva Stadium, Chester, Cheshire. The model makes Buxton the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% CHE, 30% draw, 36% BUX.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 68%. Attacking output favors Buxton on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Buxton at 52%; double chance reads Chester or draw 64%, Buxton or draw 66%.
Chester arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Hyde United, L 0-1 v Stoke City U21, W 2-0 @ Warrington Town, L 0-2 @ Fleetwood Town.
Buxton are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Scunthorpe, W 1-0 v Ashton United, L 1-3 v SC Braga, L 0-1 @ South Shields.
Chester hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chester 1-0 Buxton.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
