Tepatitlán v Leones Negros UDG: the model read
Tepatitlán meet Leones Negros UDG in the Liga de Expansión MX clausura - quarter-finals at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos. The model makes Tepatitlán the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% TEP, 30% draw, 23% LEO.
Tepatitlán rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Tepatitlán, 57% against 29%. Attacking output favors Tepatitlán on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Tepatitlán at 67%; double chance reads Tepatitlán or draw 77%, Leones Negros UDG or draw 53%.
Tepatitlán arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Durango, L 0-2 @ CDS Tampico Madero, W 3-1 v CDS Tampico Madero, W 1-0 v CDS Tampico Madero.
Leones Negros UDG are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Cancún, L 1-2 @ Venados FC, W 2-0 v Monarcas, D 1-1 @ Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Leones Negros UDG hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leones Negros UDG 0-0 Tepatitlán.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
