Porto Velho entered the Rondoniense final as favourites, with the Lemeister model giving them a 41 per cent win probability and projecting a 1-0 home victory in normal time. The final scoreline of 0-1 after 120 minutes, however, required a penalty shootout to separate the sides. The match was ultimately decided from the spot, with seven penalties taken after regulation time, and Guaporé held their nerve to secure the title despite the pre-match odds.
The opening goal arrived deep into stoppage time at the end of the second half. Nathan Sousa scored a normal goal in the 92nd minute to give Guaporé the lead, leaving Porto Velho with almost no time to respond before the final whistle. That goal proved the only one in regular time and forced the home side into a desperate chase for an equaliser that never arrived before the 120-minute mark. The timing of the strike was critical, as it shifted the dynamic of the match entirely, with Porto Velho having to push forward in search of a leveller while Guaporé could sit deeper and protect their advantage.
Extra time passed without a goal, sending the final to a penalty shootout. The sequence was unusually long and dramatic. Porto Velho converted first through Raphael Luz from the spot in the 121st minute, but Guaporé responded immediately. Capa then scored for Porto Velho in the 122nd minute, only for Caetano to level for Guaporé a minute later. Athyla put Porto Velho back ahead in the 123rd minute, but Valdo Bacabal equalised for Guaporé in the 124th. The shootout continued until Bernardo scored for Porto Velho, but Guaporé held their composure to prevail.
The statistics from open play underline Guaporé’s efficiency in the decisive moment. Without detailed shot or possession data available, the match report must rely on the goals themselves. Nathan Sousa's 92nd-minute strike was the only goal in regulation or extra time, meaning Guaporé's defensive organisation and discipline were sufficient to repel Porto Velho for over 90 minutes. Porto Velho's inability to create a clear chance in the run of play, despite the Lemeister model favouring them, was ultimately their undoing.
The penalty shootout becomes the defining feature of this final. With seven penalties taken and no misses recorded over an extended sequence, the margin between victory and defeat was razor-thin. The composure of the named players under pressure was notable. Caetano, Valdo Bacabal, and Nathan Sousa all converted for Guaporé, while Porto Velho's scorers included Raphael Luz, Capa, Athyla, and Bernardo, each holding their nerve in the shootout. The absence of any yellow or red cards across the entire match suggests a contest played with discipline, though the lack of substitution data means the impact of fresh legs in extra time cannot be assessed.
The result hands Guaporé the Rondoniense title, a significant achievement given the Lemeister model had Porto Velho as clear favourites with a 41 per cent chance of winning in normal time. Guaporé's 29 per cent win probability reflected an uphill task, but they delivered the only goal of open play and then showed superior mental resilience in the shootout. Porto Velho, despite their higher pre-match projection, could not convert their status into silverware, falling short in the most dramatic of finals. For Guaporé, this victory represents a triumph over the forecast, while Porto Velho must regroup after a campaign that promised much but ended in heartbreak.
