AC Guaratinguetá U20 were comprehensively beaten 5-1 by Capivariano U20 at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite, a result that the data shows was decided by Capivariano's ruthless finishing in a first half that effectively ended the contest. The Lemeister model had favoured Capivariano with a 51 per cent win probability, and the margin of victory comfortably exceeded its projection of a 2-0 away win.
Capivariano struck three times in a dominant first half, scoring in the 9th, 36th and 44th minutes to take a commanding 3-0 lead into the interval. Each of those goals was a normal goal, with no penalties or own goals involved. The early breakthrough set the tone, and the two goals before half-time effectively killed any hope of an AC Guaratinguetá recovery. The home side did manage a consolation in the 92nd minute, but Capivariano responded emphatically with two further normal goals in the 93rd and 95th minutes to restore their four-goal cushion and complete the 5-1 rout.
The statistical picture is built entirely from the goals timeline and the disciplinary record, as the match data did not include possession, shots, expected goals, passing or corner statistics. With no other metrics available, the story of the match is told by the scoring sequence and the cards. AC Guaratinguetá's discipline collapsed late on: they received two red cards, in the 86th and 89th minutes, meaning they played the final minutes with nine men. This numerical disadvantage likely contributed to the three goals they conceded in stoppage time, turning a perhaps respectable 3-0 defeat into a heavy 5-1 loss.
No player names are available in the data, so individual performances cannot be assessed. The match rated no players, and no assists were recorded for any of the six goals. The goalscorers for both sides remain unidentified, as do the players who received the two red cards for AC Guaratinguetá. The absence of substitution data means all eleven starters for each side are presumed to have completed the match, with only the red-card dismissals reducing the home side's numbers.
For Capivariano, the result is a clear statement of their attacking efficiency, scoring five times from what appears to be a data-absent number of attempts. The three first-half goals built an unassailable lead, and the two late additions after the red cards showed a clinical edge even when the match was already decided. AC Guaratinguetá, by contrast, will be concerned by their defensive fragility and the loss of discipline that left them short-handed for the final minutes.
In the context of the Paulista U20 1st Phase, this is a significant away victory for Capivariano, strengthening their position in the group standings with a goal difference boost. AC Guaratinguetá, on the other hand, have conceded five goals at home and will need to address their defensive organisation and composure to avoid similar results in the remaining fixtures. The two red cards are a particular worry, as they indicate a loss of control that could have consequences for player availability in future matches. Capivariano's Lemeister model favouritism was fully justified by the margin of the win and the manner in which they controlled the game from the first goal onwards.
