Paysandu advanced to the final of the Paraense championship with a 3-1 victory over Águia de Marabá at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença. The scoreline was decided in a first half that saw three goals in 22 minutes, and Paysandu’s ability to convert their chances proved decisive. The Lemeister model had rated the match as a finely balanced contest, giving Paysandu a 36 per cent win probability and projecting a 2-1 home victory; the actual result closely followed that forecast, with the home side adding a late third.
The opening goal arrived in the 11th minute. Nicolas found the net for Paysandu, giving the home side an early lead without an assist recorded. Águia de Marabá responded swiftly, equalising through Kukri in the 24th minute, also an unassisted goal. The pattern of quick, direct strikes continued when Rossi restored Paysandu’s advantage in the 33rd minute. By half-time, Paysandu had scored from two of their opportunities while Águia de Marabá had converted one, setting up a second half that required a response from the visitors.
The second half was a more disciplined, lower-event affair. No further goals arrived until stoppage time, when J. Benitez added a third for Paysandu in the 95th minute, sealing the result. The match remained competitive in terms of physicality, with four yellow cards issued. Bruno Limao of Águia de Marabá was booked in the 40th minute, Rossi of Paysandu in the 63rd, Patric Calmon of Paysandu in the 90th, and Matheus Baraka of Águia de Marabá in the 97th. The cards reflected the increasing tension as the game reached its conclusion, but Paysandu’s third goal effectively removed any chance of a comeback.
The statistics, while not provided in full, can be inferred from the match flow. Paysandu’s three goals from their attacking efforts indicate clinical finishing, particularly given that Águia de Marabá also created enough to score once. The absence of a second-half goal until stoppage time suggests both defences tightened after the interval, and the home side’s ability to strike late showed composure under pressure. The substitutiations , five by Paysandu, four by Águia de Marabá , indicate both sides used their benches to manage the intensity, but Paysandu’s tactical adjustments proved more effective.
Paysandu’s win was built on an efficient first-half attacking display. Nicolas, Rossi and J. Benitez each contributed a goal, and the team’s ability to score from three separate phases of play , early, in response to an equaliser, and in stoppage time , demonstrated depth in their attacking options. Águia de Marabá, despite matching their opponents for much of the game, could not convert their opportunities beyond Kukri’s strike.
The result sends Paysandu into the Paraense final, where they will face the winner of the other semi-final. For Águia de Marabá, the defeat ends their campaign in the semi-final stage, falling short of the final for another season. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read of a 36 per cent chance for Paysandu and a projected 2-1 scoreline aligned closely with the actual outcome, underscoring the narrow margins that separated the sides over 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
