Portugal overturned a half‑time deficit to beat Germany 2‑1 at the Allianz Arena and reach the Nations League final. The victory was built on superior attacking volume: Portugal registered 17 total shots to Germany's nine, with six on target against five, and generated the higher expected‑goals figure by a clear margin. Germany had controlled the early flow through possession, holding 55 per cent overall, but could not sustain the tempo after taking the lead early in the second half. The Lemeister model had given Germany a 37 per cent chance of victory, with Portugal at 35 per cent, making the match exceptionally finely balanced. The 2‑1 win for the away side was therefore within the expected range of outcomes.
The opening goal arrived three minutes into the second period. Florian Wirtz, who had been a threat around the Portugal box, finished after Joshua Kimmich provided the assist. Both Kimmich and Wirtz were later rated at 7.9, the joint‑highest match ratings in the Germany side. The goal briefly suggested Germany might turn their territorial advantage into control of the tie, but Portugal responded within 15 minutes. Germany's 55 per cent possession and 89 per cent passing accuracy from 535 passes had built a platform, but they could not translate that precision into sustained attacking pressure after the equaliser.
Portugal equalised in the 63rd minute when Francisco Conceição scored, with Rúben Dias credited with the assist. Conceição, who had come into the game as a substitute, was rated 7.5 for his contribution. Five minutes later, Cristiano Ronaldo put Portugal ahead from Nuno Mendes's assist, securing a lead his team would not relinquish. Ronaldo's rating of 7.7 matched that of Bruno Fernandes as the joint‑highest among Portugal's outfield players. The two quick goals shifted the momentum decisively and forced Germany to chase the game, a task made more difficult by Portugal's growing control.
The statistical breakdown shows Portugal created the more dangerous chances. They managed 12 shots inside the box to Germany's eight, and five from outside compared with Germany's one. Portugal also finished with four corner kicks to Germany's three, and zero offsides to Germany's three, indicating better timing in their forward runs. Germany's only notable advantage was in passing accuracy, completing 89 per cent of their 535 passes against Portugal's 86 per cent from 435, but they could not turn that into shots that troubled the Portugal goalkeeper, who made four saves the same number as Germany's Marc-André ter Stegen, rated 7.5.
Discipline became an issue for Germany in the closing stages. Jonathan Tah received a yellow card in the 80th minute, and Niclas Füllkrug and Florian Wirtz were both booked in the same incident in the 84th minute. Portugal's Rúben Neves had been cautioned early in the second half, and Rúben Dias also went into the book late on. Both sides used all five permitted substitutes, but the changes could not alter the pattern of a contest Portugal increasingly controlled after their double strike. Germany finished with three yellow cards to Portugal's two, a symptom of their frustration as the game slipped away.
For Germany, the result ends a promising Nations League campaign one step short of the final. Portugal move on to contest the trophy, having shown both defensive solidity and the ability to turn a game around inside five decisive minutes. The margin between the sides was narrow, but Portugal's greater attacking output, especially inside the box, proved decisive. Germany's possession and passing numbers told one story, but the scoreboard told another, and Portugal's clinical response to falling behind will be the enduring memory of this contest.
Germany 
Portugal
