Coritiba ended their Serie B campaign with a 2-1 victory over Amazonas at the Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith, a result that the Lemeister model had assessed as finely balanced. The visitors were given a 35% win probability against 34% for the home side, and the actual outcome followed that slight edge, though the model had projected a single away goal rather than the two that proved decisive. The match was effectively settled by a five-minute burst late in the first half, during which Coritiba struck twice to establish a lead that Amazonas, for all their second-half endeavour, could only reduce but not overturn.
The scoring began in the 39th minute when S. Gomez found the net, with Lucas Ronier credited with the assist for a normal goal. Before Amazonas could reorganise, Coritiba doubled their advantage just five minutes later, Iury Castilho converting from a Dellatorre assist in the 44th minute. That quick double gave the visitors a commanding 2-0 lead at half-time, a margin built on clinical finishing rather than territorial dominance. The goalscorers and their providers all received 7.3 ratings from the Lemeister model, reflecting an efficient attacking phase that capitalised on limited opportunities.
Amazonas halved the deficit early in the second half, Luan Silva scoring in the 50th minute with an assist from N. Castrillon. That goal gave the home side impetus, but they could not find an equaliser despite sustained pressure. The match statistics, while incomplete, indicate a contest that was tightly fought in terms of discipline: eight yellow cards were issued, seven of them in the second half as the game grew more fractious. Amazonas collected six of those bookings, including one for Luan Silva shortly after his goal and another for Larry Vásquez late on, suggesting a team that pushed forward aggressively but lacked the composure to break down the Coritiba defence.
The player ratings highlight a relatively even individual contribution across both sides. Coritiba’s goalscorers and assister, Sebastian Gomez, Lucas Ronier, Iury Castilho and Dellatorre, each received 7.3, the highest mark of the match. For Amazonas, Alexis Alvarino and Nilson Castrillón were the standout performers at 7.3 and 7.2 respectively, suggesting they performed well in defeat but lacked the cutting edge to complete the comeback. The home side’s five yellow cards for positional players, Diego Torres, Fabiano, Henrique Almeida, Kiko, Luan Silva and Larry Vásquez, point to a team that grew increasingly frustrated as the second half wore on.
The result had limited bearing on the broader competition context, as this was the final match of the Serie B regular season. Amazonas finished their campaign with a home defeat, while Coritiba ended on a winning note, but neither outcome altered their final league positions given that all other matches were played simultaneously. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read, which saw the visitors as narrow favourites, proved accurate in its directional prediction: Coritiba took the three points, though the manner in which they did so, via a quick first-half double, was more emphatic than the projection of a single away goal had suggested. The eight yellow cards underlined the intensity of a match that, while lacking in major stakes, was fiercely contested until the final whistle.
