Amarante v Varzim: the model read
Amarante meet Varzim in the Liga 3 promotion group - 8 at Estádio Municipal de Amarante, Amarante. The model makes Amarante the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% AMA, 32% draw, 25% VAR.
Amarante rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1454. Recent form leans Amarante, 74% against 40%. Attacking output favors Amarante on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Amarante at 63%; double chance reads Amarante or draw 75%, Varzim or draw 57%.
Amarante arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Chaves, W 3-1 @ Guimaraes B, W 1-0 v União Santarém, D 0-0 @ Trofense.
Varzim are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Tondela, D 2-2 @ União Santarém, L 1-2 v CF Os Belenenses, L 0-1 @ Academica.
Amarante hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Amarante 1-0 Varzim.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
