San Martin S.J. v Aldosivi

Aldosivi secured a commanding 3-0 victory over San Martin S.J. at the Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had identified a draw as the most likely outcome with a 35 percent probability. The final scoreline was decided by clinical finishing in the closing stages, but the foundations were laid by a disciplined defensive performance and an effective counter-attacking approach, despite playing for over 25 minutes with ten men.

The deadlock was broken just before half-time. In the 39th minute, E. Preciado found the net for Aldosivi to give the visitors a 1-0 lead at the break. That single goal separated the sides for the majority of the second half, a period marked by significant disciplinary events. San Martin S.J. saw Marco Iacobellis receive a second yellow card in the 83rd minute, reducing the home side to ten men. This came after Tobías Leiva of Aldosivi had already been sent off in the 64th minute, meaning both teams were down to ten for a spell. The numerical balance shifted decisively when Tomas Lecanda of San Martin S.J. also received a second yellow card in the 89th minute, leaving the home side with nine players.

The final minutes were a rout. With San Martin S.J. down to nine men, E. Torres scored twice in stoppage time. His first came in the 90th minute, assisted by L. Falasco, and he added a second moments later, this time with help from R. Bochi. The match ended with a flurry of additional yellow cards for both sides, capping a contest that saw a total of 11 yellow cards and three red cards.

The statistical narrative explains the result. Despite enjoying 63 percent of the ball and completing 331 of 425 passes at a 78 percent accuracy, San Martin S.J. could not turn possession into meaningful pressure. They managed 11 total shots but only four on target, with the Aldosivi goalkeeper making two saves. Aldosivi, for their part, were more direct and efficient with their 37 percent possession. They registered 13 shots, five of which were on target, and forced four saves from the home goalkeeper. With six shots from inside the box, Aldosivi’s attacking work was concentrated in dangerous areas.

The standout performer was E. Torres, whose brace earned him a match rating of 8.5. R. Bochi, who provided an assist, was rated 7.5, while Jorge Carranza and Lucio Falasco each received a 7.3. For San Martin S.J., Marco Iacobellis was the highest-rated player at 7.2 before his dismissal, but his team could not find a way through a resolute Aldosivi defence that conceded only four shots on target.

The result hands Aldosivi a valuable away victory in the Liga Profesional Argentina's 1st Phase. For San Martin S.J., the defeat, compounded by two red cards, represents a significant missed opportunity given their territorial dominance. The Lemeister model had anticipated a tightly contested draw, but Aldosivi’s ruthlessness in front of goal, particularly after the match descended into its chaotic final passages, was the decisive factor.