Canada Canada v Suriname: the model read
Canada meet Suriname in the CONCACAF Nations League quarter-finals at BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario. The model makes Canada the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% CAN, 32% draw, 26% SUR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Canada, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Canada at 62%; double chance reads Canada or draw 74%, Suriname or draw 58%.
Canada arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Morocco, W 1-0 @ South Africa, L 1-2 @ Switzerland, W 6-0 v Qatar.
Suriname are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Bolivia, L 1-3 @ Guatemala, W 4-0 v El Salvador, D 1-1 @ Panama.
Canada hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Canada 3-0 Suriname.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
