De Graafschap v Jong Ajax: the model read
De Graafschap meet Jong Ajax in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 35 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. The model makes De Graafschap the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% DE , 27% draw, 29% JON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans De Graafschap, 53% against 40%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans De Graafschap at 60%; double chance reads De Graafschap or draw 71%, Jong Ajax or draw 56%.
De Graafschap arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 3-6 v Telstar, L 1-2 v AEK Athens FC, L 2-7 @ Heerenveen, W 2-1 @ Utrecht.
Jong Ajax are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Jong AZ, L 0-2 v Jong Utrecht, W 1-0 @ Jong PSV U21, L 1-2 v FC OSS.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
