A goalless draw after 90 minutes and a six-goal penalty shootout that finished 4-2 gave Estudiantes L.P. victory over ten-man Boca Juniors in the Copa de la Liga Profesional semi-final at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes. The numbers point to a contest that was finely balanced before Boca’s numerical disadvantage tilted it. Estudiantes edged possession 51 to 49 per cent and registered 11 total shots to Boca’s eight, yet each side placed six efforts on target. The Lemeister model had called a draw the most likely outcome at 35 per cent, with the home side given a 32 per cent pre-match chance of progressing, a read that proved accurate for regulation time.
Boca took the lead in the 41st minute when M. Merentiel scored from open play, with L. Advíncula providing the assist. The goal gave Boca a platform, and they maintained it into the second half, registering six shots inside the box compared to Estudiantes’ six across the entire match. However, the defensive structure was compromised in the 73rd minute when Cristian Lema received a second yellow card, reducing Boca to ten men for the final 17 minutes of normal time and all of extra time. Lema’s first yellow had come in the 31st minute for a separate incident, and his dismissal after the second in the 73rd minute left Boca without a specialist defender for the remainder.
Estudiantes capitalised on the extra man almost immediately. In the 76th minute, E. Cetré converted a penalty to level the match, a goal that brought Estudiantes’ shots on target tally to six. Across the 120 minutes, Boca’s goalkeeper made five saves, while Estudiantes’ goalkeeper made only one, indicating that the pressure remained on Boca’s back line even before the red card. The home side had five of their six shots inside the box, with only one blocked, while Boca had two blocked shots inside the box, suggesting that Estudiantes’ defence was more effective in restricting clear chances after the sending-off.
The penalty shootout was decided across six rapid-fire kicks. E. Mancuso, G. Carrillo and M. Méndez all scored for Estudiantes, while E. Cetré also converted his effort. For Boca, K. Zenón converted his penalty, but the visitors could not match the composure of their opponents from the spot, with the decisive miss coming as Boca’s fourth penalty was saved, handing Estudiantes a 4-2 shootout victory. The shootout lasted only six kicks, as Estudiantes’ fourth scorer converted to seal the win before all five Boca takers had been needed.
The match was defined by discipline and control in midfield. Both sides recorded pass completion percentages of 82 and 81, with Estudiantes completing 335 of 407 passes and Boca completing 308 of 379. The foul count was tight at 14 for Estudiantes and 10 for Boca, with five yellow cards and one red distributed among named players Javier Correa, Santiago Ascacíbar and Cristian Lema. Boca made only two substitutions to Estudiantes’ four, an indication that their options from the bench were limited. The home side also had three offsides to Boca’s one, reflecting their more aggressive forward movement in a match that featured few offsides overall.
The result sends Estudiantes through to the final of the Copa de la Liga Profesional, where they will contest the trophy. For Boca Juniors, the semi-final exit ends their hopes of silverware in this competition, leaving them to reflect on what might have been had they preserved their numerical advantage for longer. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read of a draw as the most probable outcome proved accurate for the 90 minutes, but the shootout went the way of the side that had a man advantage for the final third of the second half and the entirety of extra time.
