Atletico Paranaense overturned an early deficit to defeat Flamengo 2-1 at the Arena da Baixada, a result that contradicted the Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 44% likelihood of an away victory. The home side’s efficiency proved decisive, as they registered four shots on target from 10 total attempts and converted two of them, while Flamengo managed only four shots on goal from 14 efforts despite dominating possession with 61%.
Gabriel Barbosa gave Flamengo the lead from the penalty spot in the 15th minute, his fourth goal of the season. The visitors controlled the early stages, completing 533 passes at 85% accuracy compared to Atletico Paranaense’s 348 passes at 78%, but could not build a commanding advantage. The home side equalised in the 29th minute through Vitor Roque, who finished after a Fernandinho assist. That goal came during a period of improved attacking intent from Atletico Paranaense, who generated six shots from inside the box across the match against Flamengo’s four.
The decisive moment arrived in the 80th minute when Erick scored to complete the turnaround. The goal underscored the home side’s clinical edge in front of goal, as the expected goals figures were nearly level at 1.34 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.44 for Flamengo. Flamengo attempted 10 shots from outside the box, suggesting a reliance on speculative efforts rather than carving out high-quality openings, and the home goalkeeper made four saves to keep his side in the contest.
Flamengo’s Everton was the highest-rated player on the pitch with an 8.0 rating, reflecting his influence in possession and attacking transitions. Gabriel Barbosa earned a 7.7 rating for his penalty and overall contribution, though he was also booked in the 32nd minute. For the home side, Erick and Vitor Roque both received 7.7 ratings, the former for scoring the winner and the latter for netting the equaliser. Victor Hugo recorded a 7.3 rating for Flamengo, while Bento was solid in goal for Atletico Paranaense with a 7.2 rating and four saves.
The match featured five substitutions for the home side and four for the visitors, with a total of four yellow cards. Gabriel Barbosa and Erick Pulgar were booked for Flamengo, while Erick and Fernandinho received cautions for Atletico Paranaense. The home side committed 15 fouls to Flamengo’s 11, and they were caught offside twice while the visitors had none. Corner kicks heavily favoured Flamengo at 8-2, yet they could not convert that set-piece dominance into goals.
The Lemeister model had projected a 44% chance of a Flamengo victory and only 26% for the home side, making this a notable upset. The result moves Atletico Paranaense to six points from four matches, while Flamengo remain on seven points. Both sides are clustered in the middle of the early Serie A table, separated by a single point. Flamengo’s inability to convert dominant possession into goals remains a concern, as their expected goals output did not match their territorial control. Atletico Paranaense, by contrast, demonstrated that efficiency can overcome possession deficits, a valuable trait as the season progresses.
