Where the market is wrong on Morecambe v Darlington 1883
Morecambe meet Darlington 1883 in the FA Cup 3rd round qualifying.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Morecambe, 45% against 35%. Attacking output favors Darlington 1883 on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Morecambe arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Oxford City, W 2-0 v Southport, W 3-0 v Brackley Town, L 1-2 @ Southport.
Darlington 1883 are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Hebburn Town, W 4-2 @ Redcar Town, L 1-2 @ Marine, L 2-5 @ Chorley.
The market prices MOR at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Darlington 1883: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
