Where the market is wrong on New Caledonia v Solomon Islands
New Caledonia meet Solomon Islands in the Friendlies friendly international.
New Caledonia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1617 to 1400. Recent form leans New Caledonia, 64% against 25%. Attacking output favors New Caledonia on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.1 per match.
New Caledonia arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Vanuatu, W 2-1 @ Papua New Guinea, L 0-2 v Solomon Islands, L 0-1 v Jamaica.
Solomon Islands are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Vanuatu, W 2-0 @ New Caledonia, L 2-4 @ St. Kitts and Nevis, L 2-10 v Bulgaria.
Solomon Islands hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: New Caledonia 0-2 Solomon Islands.
The market prices NEW at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on New Caledonia: a 15.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 88 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
