Where the market is wrong on XV de Piracicaba U20 v Sfera U20
XV de Piracicaba U20 meet Sfera U20 in the Paulista - U20 round of 32.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Sfera U20 on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.8 per match.
XV de Piracicaba U20 arrive steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Bandeirante U20, D 0-0 v Ibrachina U20, D 0-0 @ União São João U20, D 1-1 @ Santo André U20.
Sfera U20 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Palmeiras U20, W 5-2 v Ituano U20, D 1-1 v Gremio Prudente U20, L 0-1 @ Referencia U20.
The market prices XV at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output