Where the market is wrong on Nicaragua v Costa Rica
Nicaragua meet Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 1 at Nicaragua National Football Stadium, Managua.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Costa Rica, 53% against 25%. Attacking output favors Costa Rica on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.7 per match.
Nicaragua arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Costa Rica, L 1-6 @ Curaçao, L 2-3 @ Dominican Republic, L 0-4 @ Paraguay.
Costa Rica are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Nicaragua, L 0-2 @ Haiti, L 3-4 v Curaçao, L 0-3 @ England.
Costa Rica hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nicaragua 0-3 Costa Rica.
The market prices NIC at 8% implied. Our number sits apart on Nicaragua: a 12.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
