Where the market is wrong on Lusail City v Al-Markhiya
Lusail City meet Al-Markhiya in the QSL Cup group stage - 1 at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha.
The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Lusail City on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Lusail City arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Al-Markhiya, D 0-0 @ Al-Gharafa, W 4-0 v Al Wakrah, D 3-3 @ Al Ahli Doha.
Al-Markhiya are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 11 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Lusail City, W 2-0 @ Al Rayyan SC B, W 3-0 @ Al-Gharafa B, W 3-0 @ Al-Khor.
Lusail City hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lusail City 1-0 Al-Markhiya.
The market prices LUS at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Al-Markhiya: a 10.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 78 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
