Guarda v Chaves: the model read
Guarda meet Chaves in the Taça de Portugal round of 128.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Chaves, 48% against 38%. Attacking output favors Chaves on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Guarda arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Chaves, D 2-2 v Camacha, L 0-1 @ União Lamas, W 6-0 @ Académico do Fundão.
Chaves are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Guarda, W 1-0 v Feirense, L 1-2 @ Felgueiras 1932, D 2-2 v AVS.
Chaves hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guarda 2-3 Chaves.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
