Where the market is wrong on Northcote City v Bulleen Lions
Northcote City meet Bulleen Lions in the Victoria NPL 2 semi-finals at John Cain Memorial Park, Melbourne.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 68%. Attacking output favors Bulleen Lions on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Northcote City arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Bulleen Lions, L 1-3 @ Bulleen Lions, L 1-2 v Brunswick Juventus FC, W 1-0 @ Melbourne Victory II.
Bulleen Lions are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Northcote City, W 3-1 v Northcote City, W 1-0 @ Melbourne Srbija, W 2-1 v North Sunshine Eagles.
Bulleen Lions hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Northcote City 3-2 Bulleen Lions.
The market prices NOR at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Bulleen Lions: a 5.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
