Where the market is wrong on FC Porto v Manchester City
FC Porto meet Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League league stage - 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1707 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 78% against 75%. Attacking output favors Manchester City on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.6 per match.
FC Porto arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 10 scored and 0 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Academico Viseu, W 2-0 v Arouca, W 2-0 @ Rio Ave, W 2-0 v Alverca.
Manchester City are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Crystal Palace, W 2-1 v Bournemouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 3-1 v Atletico Madrid.
Manchester City hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2020: FC Porto 0-0 Manchester City.
The market prices FC at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Porto: a 14.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
