Where the market is wrong on Boca Juniors v Sao Paulo
Boca Juniors meet Sao Paulo in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana quarter-finals at Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires.
Boca Juniors rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1432. Recent form leans Boca Juniors, 57% against 42%. Attacking output favors Boca Juniors on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Boca Juniors arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lanus, D 1-1 @ Racing Club, W 4-0 @ Deportivo Recoleta, D 1-1 @ Platense.
Sao Paulo are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v RB Bragantino, L 0-1 @ Chapecoense-sc, W 3-1 v Bolívar, D 1-1 v Coritiba.
The market prices BOC at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Sao Paulo: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
