Where the market is wrong on Gubbio v Vis Pesaro
Gubbio meet Vis Pesaro in the Coppa Italia Serie C round of 32 at Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gubbio, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Gubbio on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Gubbio arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Vis Pesaro, L 1-2 v Reggiana, L 0-3 @ Guidonia Montecelio 1937, W 2-1 @ Pineto.
Vis Pesaro are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Gubbio, D 2-2 v Perugia, L 0-2 @ Pescara, W 2-1 @ Perugia.
The market prices GUB at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
