Where the market is wrong on Lucchese v Robur Siena
Lucchese meet Robur Siena in the Serie D - Girone E group e - 5 at Porta Elisa, Lucca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 70%. Attacking output favors Robur Siena on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.8 per match.
Lucchese arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Robur Siena, D 0-0 @ Rondinella, W 5-0 v Progresso, L 0-5 @ Seravezza.
Robur Siena are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Lucchese, W 3-0 v Montevarchi Calcio, L 2-3 @ Tau Altopascio, W 3-0 v Mezzolara.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lucchese 3-2 Robur Siena.
The market prices LUC at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Robur Siena: a 13.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
