Where the market is wrong on ADO '20 v Excelsior Maassluis
ADO '20 meet Excelsior Maassluis in the KNVB Beker 1st preliminary round.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ADO '20, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Excelsior Maassluis on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
ADO '20 arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Excelsior Maassluis, D 0-0 v Staphorst, L 1-4 @ Eemdijk, W 3-1 v Hercules.
Excelsior Maassluis are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ ADO '20, L 0-1 @ FC Lisse, W 3-1 v Groene Ster, D 1-1 @ UDI '19.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ADO '20 1-1 Excelsior Maassluis.
The market prices ADO at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
