Where the market is wrong on Subiza v Cirbonero
Subiza meet Cirbonero in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 group 15 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Subiza on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Subiza arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Cirbonero, D 1-1 @ Avance Ezcabarte, W 5-2 v Valle Egüés, L 2-3 @ Gazte Berriak.
Cirbonero are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Subiza, D 0-0 v Beti Onak, D 1-1 @ Txantrea, L 0-4 v Izarra.
Subiza hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Subiza 2-0 Cirbonero.
The market prices SUB at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Cirbonero: a 13.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
