Where the market is wrong on Sámano v Guarnizo
Sámano meet Guarnizo in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 group 3 - 3.
Guarnizo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1400. Recent form leans Guarnizo, 63% against 15%. Attacking output favors Guarnizo on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Sámano arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Guarnizo, L 1-2 @ Vimenor, D 2-2 v Barquereño, L 0-5 v Bergantiños.
Guarnizo are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Velarde, L 1-4 @ Sámano, L 0-1 v Cayón, L 1-2 @ Atlético Mineros.
Sámano hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sámano 4-1 Guarnizo.
The market prices SÁM at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Guarnizo: a 20.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
