Alondras v Sarriana: the model read
Alondras meet Sarriana in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 group 1 - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Alondras on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Alondras arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 @ Atlético Arteixo, W 2-0 v Sarriana, W 2-0 @ Antela, L 2-6 v Pontevedra II.
Sarriana are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Celta de Vigo III, L 0-2 @ Alondras, W 2-0 v Viveiro, W 3-1 @ Estradense.
Alondras hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alondras 2-0 Sarriana.
The market broadly agrees with the model here, 32% implied on ALO against our 33%. No meaningful edge. Discipline means passing on priced-in matches.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
