Where the market is wrong on Resistencia v Cerro Porteno
Resistencia meet Cerro Porteno in the Copa Paraguay round of 32 at La Arboleda, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1528, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 53%. Attacking output favors Cerro Porteno on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 18%. Draw no bet leans Cerro Porteno at 52%; double chance reads Resistencia or draw 66%, Cerro Porteno or draw 69%.
Resistencia arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Cerro Porteno, D 0-0 @ SOL DE America, W 1-0 v Deportivo Capiata, D 1-1 @ Independiente F.b.c..
Cerro Porteno are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Resistencia, L 1-2 @ Olimpia, L 0-1 v Palmeiras, W 1-0 v Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Cerro Porteno hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Resistencia 0-1 Cerro Porteno.
The market prices RES at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Resistencia: a 19.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
